[June 03, 2013] |
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Mobile Traffic Forecast to Reach 131K PB in 2018; Carriers Can Cope If They Play Their Cards Right, Says ABI Research
SINGAPORE --(Business Wire)--
Global mobile data traffic expanded at 69% in 2012 and is anticipated to
grow at 72% in 2013 to reach 23,000 Peta Bytes. By 2018 total mobile
data traffic will likely eclipse 131,000 Peta Bytes. "There has been
much 'doom-mongering' about this growth in mobile data traffic but
mobile carriers should not panic just yet. There are indications that
mobile carriers have a number of options to handle the traffic loads,"
said Jake Saunders, VP and practice director for core forecasting at ABI
Research.
Based on extensive research for ABI Research's (News - Alert) "Carrier Strategies to
Alleviate the Capacity Crunch" report, we detail the strategic options
mobile carriers can place at their disposal to manage the expanding
mobile data traffic outlook.
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Radio Access Technology Options: Carriers are commercializing
LTE (News - Alert) but there are additional benefits to be gained from quickly
adopting the LTE-Advanced roadmap. LTE-A's release 10
introduces enhanced Multi-In Multi-Out antenna technology as well as
interference mitigation technologies such as CoMP and eICIC. A crucial
technology is Carrier Aggregation that will allow mobile operators to
"chain" spectrum blocks for substantial capacity and speed gains.
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Network Architecture Options: Mobile operators an optimize
their network base station assets to make the best possible (re)use of
their allocated spectrum. As of 1Q-2013, only a handful of mobile
operators have fully engaged on a small cell strategy that
incorporates Wi-Fi hotspots and small cell 4G LTE base stations.
Operators that have adopted a comprehensive small cell strategy
include Softbank NTT DoCoMo, SK Telecom, KT, Uplus and in the last
week, Verizon Wireless.
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Spectrum (News - Alert) Options: After speaking with various spectrum
stakeholders, ABI Research estimates that the available spectrum for
the mobile cellular community will increase from around 300 MHz to
1,500 MHz over the next 5 to 10 years. Incumbent mobile operators and
equipment vendors would prefer this spectrum to be allocated on a
dedicated basis but the FCC (News - Alert), the EC, Ofcom, and a number of additional
governments are keen to evaluate cognitive radio technologies, such as
white space TV, as they would boost spectrum capacity while allowing
co-habiting users. At the next World Radio Congress there would be a
stand-off between cellular and broadcast stake-holders.
These findings are part of ABI Research's new Mobile
Carrier Strategies Research Service (http://www.abiresearch.com/research/service/mobile-carrier-strategies/).
ABI Research provides in-depth analysis and quantitative forecasting of
trends in global connectivity and other emerging technologies. From
offices in North America, Europe and Asia, ABI Research's worldwide team
of experts advises thousands of decision makers through 70+ research and
advisory services. Est. 1990. For more information visit www.abiresearch.com,
or call +1.516.624.2500.
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