[April 19, 2012]

OLEDs, with Rapid Growth of Smartphones, Will Create $11 Billion Market in 2017

With rapid innovation and significant cost-cutting, organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) represent the technology best-placed to carve off a share of the $100-billion liquid-crystal display (LCD) market, according to a Lux Research report. OLED technology, which increasingly is used in smartphones, will reach a market size of nearly $11 billion in 2017, up from $1.9 billion in 2011, as it achieves cost parity with LCDs for small-area displays. However, OLEDs will require further innovation in order to successfully target larger-screen displays such as televisions.

"Smartphones and OLEDs are a match made in heaven, but higher cost barriers exist for larger-area OLED applications," said Jonathan Melnick, Lux Research Analyst and lead author of the report titled, "Cutting Up the LCD Pie: Calculating the Billion-Dollar Slices from Display Innovation."

"Based on our component materials and manufacturing cost analyss, OLEDs will decrease from their current $3,000/m² for small-area displays to be cost competitive with LCDs by 2016," he added.

Lux Research analysts researchers projected the cost and performance trajectory for of OLEDs, as well as for emerging non-segmented reflective display technologies - such as the electrophoretics used in e-readers like the Amazon Kindle - to find out which displays can rival LCDs. Among their conclusions:

• OLEDs are the front-runner, with room to grow. In 2017, over one-third of all smartphones will sport an OLED screen, corresponding to a $9.5 billion market. Other markets remain small, but there's potential for an extremely large upside in the event Apple (News - Alert) embraces the technology for its hugely popular iPhones and iPads - in that event, its market could swell to $35 billion.
• E-readers set to decline after 2013. E-readers dominate the non-segmented reflective display market but will peak in 2013 as they face market saturation and competition from alternative devices like tablet computers. Consequently, digital signage will become the primary application in the $1.6 billion market for reflective displays in 2017.
• Flexible display screens have a long way to go. Flexible displays are exciting for their ability to enable new form factors and create more robust versions of existing devices. However, enabling technologies like barrier films are not mature enough and flexible displays will remain a modest $140 million market in 2017. While OLEDs can be made flexible, they suffer from materials and manufacturing challenges and will have only a 15% share of the flexible display market.

The report, titled "Cutting Up the LCD Pie: Calculating the Billion-Dollar Slices from Display Innovation," is part of the Lux Research Printed Electronics Intelligence service.

About Lux Research

Lux Research provides strategic advice and on-going intelligence for emerging technologies. Leaders in business, finance and government rely on us to help them make informed strategic decisions. Through our unique research approach focused on primary research and our extensive global network, we deliver insight, connections and competitive advantage to our clients. Visit www.luxresearchinc.com for more information.

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